This headline is directionally correct but needs more precision on the term “record.” What is at record levels is the drawdown rate, while absolute low inventory levels are only accurate for specific categories. According to IEA (September 2026 report), observed global oil inventory declined by an additional 95 million barrels in August alone, totaling 507 million barrels cumulatively since the conflict began, averaging 2.8 million barrels/day, while over 10 million barrels/day of Gulf region production remains frozen. In terms of inventory levels, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest since October 1982, and EIA forecasts OECD country oil inventories will fall below 2.3 billion barrels by year-end, the lowest since the agency began tracking in 2003.
What made this news particularly noteworthy over the past two days was Aramco CEO Amin Nasser’s remarks at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London: the global inventory system is “tight,” with pre-crisis total inventory around 10 billion barrels and over 1 billion barrels already drawn, and refilling could take up to two years even with complete reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He also emphasized that inventory figures on paper do not equate to usable oil: much of it sits at tank bottoms, in pipelines, or is tied up by minimum reserve regulations. This is why the G7 coordinated with IEA last Friday to decide on releasing an additional 100 million barrels, and Nasser noted that the 100 million barrel figure itself required very difficult negotiations.
For Vietnamese oil and gas investors, lower inventory means the “floor price” for oil is raised and the market becomes more sensitive to every small shock, such as China’s halt on fuel product exports in October that Easy Stock recently analyzed. The benefit chain is fairly clear but uneven. Oil refining is the most direct beneficiary: IEA noted that Atlantic region refining margins hit record levels in August due to diesel price spreads, positioning BSR well to benefit if this trend spreads to Asia. However, IEA also points out that surging shipping costs are dragging down refining profits in Singapore, meaning the advantage does not automatically transfer intact to Asian refineries. High shipping costs, meanwhile, are good news for PVT, while upstream groups like PVD and PVS benefit indirectly through high oil prices and demand for reserve replacement making exploration and production budgets difficult to cut soon.
There are two factors investors should consider before viewing this as a one-sided story. First, low inventory supports prices but also creates two-way volatility: should a conflict ceasefire agreement emerge and Hormuz flows recover, prices and refining margins could decline sharply as the market reprices, while coordinated release rounds by G7 and IEA (totaling 325 million barrels released so far, with 75 million more coming) are precisely tools to actively contain price spikes. Second, high prices are distorting demand: EIA forecasts global oil demand in 2026 will decline by 1.1 million barrels/day, the first decline since the 2020 pandemic, so part of current price strength stems from supply scarcity rather than strong demand, and that is the type of advantage difficult to sustain. Additionally, for PLX and domestic distribution, high input prices combined with Vietnam’s roughly 30-day fuel reserve create separate risks regarding both costs and supply security.
The next point to monitor is Beijing’s decision on fuel product exports after the holiday and progress on complete Hormuz reopening: these two factors will determine whether global oil inventory begins refilling in Q4 or extends into 2027.
Article compiled from publicly available sources (IEA, EIA, Reuters, Euronews) and independent financial analysis. Content is for informational reference only and does not constitute investment recommendations under the 2019 Securities Law. Investors bear responsibility for all their financial decisions. Easy Stock — easystock.vn