VN-Index 09/10/2026: Dropped to 1,724, Capital Flow Reversed

Support levels are not validated when price merely sits upon them, but when price breaks through and then recovers. On Friday, the market took this test — and provided only a partial answer.

VN-Index opened at 1,737.63 points, rose to a high of 1,744.89, then was pushed down to a low of 1,724.17 points — approximately 7 points below the 1,731.03 support from 02/10, approaching August’s low zone (1,715.9 intraday low; 1,726.7 closing low). From there, buying interest emerged, pulling the index to close at 1,735.09 points (-3.88 points; -0.22%), sitting in the middle of the day’s range (53%). Most notably, volume: 745.5 million units per EasyStock data, 1.39 times the 20-session average, the highest in 10 sessions and the fourth highest in the last 60 sessions. Trading concentration was strongest in SHB (approximately 1,283 billion VND, volume nearly 3 times average despite only 0.5% decline), NVL (approximately 800 billion VND), and HDB (approximately 779 billion VND).

MA = average price over N recent sessions. RSI = momentum gauge (below 30 indicates oversold). MACD Histogram = measures momentum; decreasing negative values indicate weakening downtrend. Vol/Avg20 = today’s volume versus 20-session average.

According to Wyckoff methodology (reading large money footprints via charts), penetrating support then recovering within the same session resembles the “Spring” pattern — a shakeout to accumulate at lower prices. However, standard formations typically show low or moderate volume; today’s high volume suggests a more cautious reading: “volume stopping the decline” (Stopping Volume — strong buying absorbing selling at lows). Both interpretations require the same confirmation: a follow-up session where price holds above 1,724 on noticeably lower volume.

Capital Flow Shift: Oil & Gas Pauses, Banks and Real Estate Recover

Over the past two sessions, oil & gas was the only group resisting the decline. Today roles reversed: BSR declined 2.97% and closed at the day’s low, PVP -3.6%, GAS -1.59% (also closing at day’s low), PVT -1.37%, PLX -0.66%. After a multi-session rally, a consolidation from the leading group is normal. BSR and GAS volumes were not large (0.82 and 0.67 times average), so this looks more like a pause than a significant retreat — but this is a key point to monitor for leading groups.

On the opposite side, capital sought groups that had declined significantly: CTG +1.0% (closed at day’s high), TCB +1.4%, VPB +1.5%, HDB +3.9%; real estate had NVL +6.8%, PDR +1.8%, DXG +1.5%; PNJ +6.85% (closed at day’s high). On HOSE, real estate had 27 gainers / 21 losers, banks 6 gainers / 9 losers (net average near flat, -0.1%). Technology was the weakest group: 5 out of 8 stocks declined, FPT -3.0% and CMG -1.7% with large volume.

Three Stocks Today: One Passes the Test, One Shows Fatigue

GMD answered the question posed in yesterday’s report: after a retest, it rose 1.48% to 55.00 thousand VND and closed at the day’s high — the highest closing in 52 weeks. The day’s low of 53.20 still stays well above the old support zone 52.4 – 52.8. However, 55.5 (the high from 07/10 and 08/10 sessions) has not yet been cleared, and RSI reached 71.9. MSB shows a notable detail: it hit a new intraday high of 14.95 then reversed, closing at 14.60 (-1.02%), near the day’s low, with volume 1.46 times average — the “push up then rejection” pattern at resistance. Price remains above reference support 14.20 – 14.40, so not yet broken, but a fatigue signal worth observing. MSR (UPCom) edged down 0.44% on below-average volume; RSI remains at 86.4 — a sideways move to “cool off” is the healthiest scenario for a hot performer.

HDB, NVL, FPT: Three Stories of a Rotating Session

Trend Template = 8-criteria framework for sustainable uptrend (Mark Minervini). RS Rating = relative strength rank versus market (1-99). Stage 2 = “spring” phase of price cycle when uptrend established. Scale: 6-8/8 is “solid uptrend structure”, 3-5/8 is “transitional”, 0-2/8 is “weak longer-term structure”.

HDB — Breaking Through Support on Ex-Dividend Day

This session’s data shows HDB’s entire price history has been adjusted downward approximately 23% (08/10 price now displays 21.55 instead of 28.00 thousand VND), corresponding to a stock split event around 30% ratio — meaning 09/10 is the first trading day on the new price basis. On the adjusted price level, HDB rose 3.94% to 22.40, touching 23.05 intraday — near the 52-week high (22.86 close; 23.09 intraday) — after nearly three weeks of consolidation in the 21.0 – 21.9 zone. Volume of 34.8 million shares, 2.55 times average, the highest in 60 sessions. This figure requires careful interpretation: the old volume series was not adjusted while each share’s price is now ~23% lower, so part of the volume increase is technical in nature; even after accounting for this adjustment, volume remains approximately double normal. Close was at 62% of range — positive but not complete.

NVL — Strongest Surge in a Weak Picture

Novaland rose 6.83% to 10.95 thousand VND, closed at the day’s high, volume of 73.1 million shares — 2.81 times average, second highest in 60 sessions. Context: a sharp decline at late September (from ~12.1 to 10.25 in just three sessions), followed by seven sessions consolidating near lows with closes around 10.20 – 10.55. Today price broke above this zone with large volume — in VSA language (range-volume analysis), this is “effort and result aligned”: heavy buying in, price moves far, closes at high. However, longer-term structure remains very weak: only 1/8 criteria met, price below both MA20 (11.36) and MA50 (12.44), over 42% away from 52-week high. This is Case B (bottom probing) in early stage: one buying signal has appeared, not yet a new trend.

FPT — Continuing Slide, Temperature Gauge Very Low

FPT declined 3.02% to 57.90 thousand VND, volume 1.89 times average, closed near the day’s low (16% of range) — all seven recent sessions closed in the lower half of range. Stock meets none of the 8 criteria, trades 18% below MA200 (70.89), just under 2.5% away from 52-week low (56.56, 27/07). This is Case C: weak technical signals, price declining with rising volume. However, RSI reached 23.6 — an extremely oversold level rarely seen. Oversold doesn’t mean imminent recovery, but usually signals selling pressure has exhausted; what to watch is whether the July low zone shows a high-volume session where price doesn’t decline further.

Average True Range (ATR 14) — typical daily “swing” for reference: HDB ~550 VND, NVL ~520 VND, FPT ~1,380 VND — educational metric to calculate personal risk tolerance. If price closes below reference support zones, corresponding technical thesis requires reassessment. Investors self-assess suitability based on personal risk appetite.

Price Zones to Monitor Next Week

The 1,715 – 1,735 point zone (August’s low and today’s 1,724 session low) is now the key reference support. If the index closes below 1,715 with rising volume, the “bottom formation” thesis requires reassessment and the consolidation pattern will convert to a clear weakness signal (Wyckoff term: SOW — Sign of Weakness). Above, 1,745 – 1,764 is near resistance (highs from 06/10 and 08/10 sessions), while the cluster of MA20/MA50/MA150/MA200 around 1,779 – 1,797 is the level needed to confirm a quality rebound. Stochastic (14,3,3 — measures where closing price sits in 14-session range) at 13.2 is in oversold zone but still below signal line (17.7), so no reversal signal yet; MACD also remains below zero.

HDB prices in this report are adjusted for ex-dividend effects. MSR listed on UPCom; other stocks on HOSE.