VN-Index 12/10/2026: Lowest Since July, VIC Weighs on Index

There are two ways to read a 14-point decline session. Looking only at the index, this is the lowest closing level in over two months. Looking at individual stocks, this is one of the most balanced sessions of October. The correct answer lies in how these two pictures differ.

VN-Index opened at 1,736.20 points, barely nudged up to 1,736.64, then slipped lower, touching a low of 1,717.76 and closing at 1,720.98 points (-14.11 points; -0.81%), at 17% of the day’s range. This is the lowest closing level since 29/07/2026 (1,704.68), and has fallen below August’s lowest closing price (1,726.7). The day’s low remains just under 2 points above August’s intraday low (1,715.9). Volume was 470.4 million units, only 0.89x the 20-session average and down nearly 37% from Friday (745.5 million).

MA = average price of N recent sessions. RSI = thermometer measuring price heat/cold (below 30 is “cold”). MACD Histogram = measures speed of price momentum; increasingly negative means strengthening downtrend. Stochastic (14,3,3) = measures closing price position within 14-session range; below 20 is oversold zone.

In VSA (Volume Spread Analysis — analyzing the relationship between price range and volume), a price decline with low volume is typically read as “weak demand” rather than “heavy selling.” This is an important detail: it tells us today’s decline doesn’t yet have the appearance of a selloff, but it also tells us buying interest is sitting on the sidelines, waiting for lower prices.

Index Red, But Market Not That Red

This is the session where the gap between the index and the rest of the market was largest in the past week. On HOSE, 149 gainers and 149 losers (ratio 1.00), compared to 126/169 Friday. The percentage of stocks above MA20 increased from 33.2% to 38.0%, and the number of stocks near 52-week lows decreased further from 35 to 29. In other words, most stocks improved somewhat today, while the index fell nearly 1%.

Pressure came from large-cap stocks: VIC -2.88%, VHM -3.18%, MSN -1.48%, PLX -3.08%, GAS -2.11% — four of the five closed near the day’s low. On the other side, banking was the strongest group in breadth: 11 gainers, 5 losers on HOSE, with VPB +2.52% (largest trading value on the exchange, around 751 billion VND), SHB +4.0%, ACB +1.5%, TCB +0.8%. Construction-materials group had 24 gainers, 17 losers; HSG +3.5% with volume 2.45x average.

Stocks from Previous Sessions: Who Held Momentum, Who Slowed

NVL rose another 1.83% to 11.15 thousand VND on volume just 0.72x average — a “continuing without effort” session following Friday’s strong bounce, a positive detail with bottom-testing structure; price approaching MA20 (around 11.4). HDB held gains after the rights adjustment, +0.89% to 22.60, volume slightly above average. FPT continued -1.38% and closed exactly at the day’s low of 57.10, just 1% away from the 52-week low (56.56). GMD is the most noteworthy: price briefly exceeded the 55.5-56.0 zone to 56.0 but reversed, closing at 54.10 (-1.64%), near the day’s low, on volume 1.77x average — a pattern near an Upthrust (false move up at upper edge). The 55.5-56.0 zone is now clear resistance; 52.4-52.8 zone is support to maintain. MSB retreated slightly -0.68% on very low volume (0.27x average) — quiet rest, not heavy selling. MSR (UPCoM) -0.44%, continuing sideways to cool down.

VPB, VIC, PNJ: One Rising, One Slipping Long-term, One In Free Fall

Trend Template = 8-criterion checklist for sustainable uptrend (Mark Minervini); 6-8/8 is “solid structure,” 3-5/8 is “in transition,” 0-2/8 is “weak.” RS Rating = rank of price strength vs. entire market (1-99). Stage 2 = rising phase; Stage 4 = declining phase of price cycle.

VPB — Six Sessions Up in a Row, Today the Strongest

VPBank had the largest trading value on HOSE today. Price rose 2.52% to 24.40 thousand VND, at times touched 24.95, volume 30.8 million shares — 1.37x average and fifth-highest in 60 sessions. More notably is the rhythm: after 02/10, price rose six sessions straight from 22.90 to 24.40, all closing in the upper half of the range. That’s a “step-by-step” ascent rather than a jump. However, today price gave back half the range (closed at 52%), and RSI at 73.2 — entering the hot zone. Above, the 52-week high 26.26 (October 2025 closing price) is the next notable technical resistance. Structure meets 6/8 criteria; the missing criterion is MA150 (21.12) still below MA200 (21.37) — remnant of early-year decline not yet erased.

VIC — Largest Stock Down Four Straight, But Declining Volume

VIC fell 2.88% to 219.0 thousand VND and closed near the day’s low (6% of range) — fourth consecutive losing session, from 232.0 down to 219.0 (-5.6%). Price broke below MA50 (226.4), causing VIC to lose the first criterion of the 8-criterion set. But there’s one detail worth reading carefully: volume declined each session since 06/10 — 1.24 then 1.18, 0.97, 0.89, and today 0.77x average. Price falling with declining volume is a sign supply is not overwhelming, but buying interest is temporarily absent. This is Case C at mild level: weak technical signal when price breaks MA50, but no heavy-volume selloff session yet. The 215-219 zone (low of 02/10 and today) is near reference support; if price closes below this zone, the “correction within uptrend” thesis needs reconsideration. Above, 225.5-232 is the notable technical resistance zone.

PNJ — One Limit-Up Session, Then Back to Floor Price

PNJ is the most extreme story on the board. After five straight down sessions (from 24.75 on 01/10 to 18.25 on 08/10, most down sessions at floor limit), the stock rose 6.85% to close at the day’s high Friday — but today reversed down 6.92% to 18.15, closed exactly at the day’s low and made new 52-week low, volume 1.52x average. In 20 sessions, price lost over half (from 37.2 to 18.15), RSI only 16.6. Structure 0/8, RS 0 — the lowest possible. This is Case C clearly: Friday’s recovery occurred on very low volume (0.57x average), meaning no real buying interest has returned, and today confirms supply still dominates. Extremely low RSI shows price has gone very far, but no sign the fall has stopped.

14-session average range (ATR — typical daily “swing”): VPB around 640 VND, VIC around 6,560 VND, PNJ around 1,820 VND (equivalent to 10% of current price) — for educational purposes, to help self-calculate comfort level matching individual risk tolerance. Investors themselves assess what level is appropriate to their own risk appetite.

Price Levels to Watch Next

The 1,715-1,725 point zone (August’s low and the lows of the two most recent sessions) is the final technical support reference for the current sideways structure. If the index closes below 1,715 with increased volume, Wyckoff school calls that SOW (Sign of Weakness) and the “bottom forming” thesis needs reconsideration; late July’s low around 1,650-1,705 would then become the next reference level. Above, 1,735-1,745 is near resistance (high of two recent sessions), while the MA20/MA50/MA150/MA200 cluster around 1,776-1,798 points remains the level to break for confirming a quality recovery.

MSR listed on UPCoM; other stocks on HOSE.