GAS — Vietnam National Gas Joint Stock Company (HOSE)
Reading Mode: Expert · Full Stack: Macro → FA → TA → Conviction Score · Combined IFRS (Vietcap, released 23/08/2026) and OHLCV price data from AmiBroker
⚠️ Support/resistance zones and ATR are technical references — not trade signals. Investors should determine levels appropriate to personal risk tolerance.
Six Core Macroeconomic Variables
- GDP Growth: H1/2026 achieved +8.18% YoY (Q2 standalone +8.39%) — highest in 15 years; manufacturing-construction sector grew 10.51%, contributing 50% to overall growth → directly supports electricity/gas demand for domestic industrial production.
- CPI/Inflation: H1/2026 average +4.38% YoY (target ~4.5%), core inflation +4.12% — price pressures mainly from fuel/gas/food groups, directly linked to GAS’s value chain.
- OMO/Repo Rate (SBV): 4.5%/year (raised from 4.0% since December 2025) — VND-USD interest rate differential has turned positive, reducing near-term exchange rate pressure.
- USD/VND Exchange Rate: Central rate 25.580đ (18/8/2026), up ~1% from end-July — VND more stable than IDR/THB but pressure increasing toward year-end → affects import costs for LNG/LPG paid in USD by GAS.
- Fed Rate/DXY: Fed holds at 3.5–3.75%, likely unchanged through 2026 as US CPI rises to 4.2% (3-year high) → USD remains strong, continues as key FX risk for Vietnam.
- Government Investment: H1/2026 disbursements reached ~357.000 trillion VND (35.5% of plan), up 38.400 trillion vs. same period — indirectly supports industrial energy demand.
Broader Market & Capital Flows
VN-Index closed at 1.832,12đ (28/8), recovering +9.8% from low of 22/7 (1.668,53đ — same day as GAS’s low, see section 3) and ~5.2% below all-time high of 1.932,62đ (18/5). Foreign net selling YTD stands at ~93.050 trillion VND, though late August shows signs of reversal (~335 billion VND net buying on 28/8, concentrated in FPT/TCB/VPB) — insufficient to confirm trend reversal in foreign capital flows.
Oil & Gas Sector Position
By 2026 sector priority (Banking → Real Estate → Industrial Zones → Renewable Energy → Technology → Consumer → Construction), traditional Oil & Gas does not rank among officially prioritized sectors. However, the sector has its own tailwind from elevated LPG/LNG prices due to prolonged Middle East geopolitical tensions, clearly reflected in GAS’s recent earnings (see section 2).
2A — Profitability (2018–2025, VND Trillion)
| Metric | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | 75.612 | 75.005 | 64.135 | 78.992 | 100.724 | 89.954 | 103.564 | 135.129 |
| Gross Profit | 17.491 | 16.919 | 11.406 | 13.986 | 21.315 | 16.925 | 17.654 | 17.051 |
| Gross Margin | 23.1% | 22.6% | 17.8% | 17.7% | 21.2% | 18.8% | 17.0% | 12.6% |
| Pre-tax Profit | 14.540 | 15.068 | 9.978 | 11.205 | 18.806 | 14.640 | 13.172 | 14.359 |
| Net Income – Parent | 11.454 | 11.902 | 7.855 | 8.673 | 14.798 | 11.606 | 10.398 | 11.414 |
| Net Margin | 15.1% | 15.9% | 12.2% | 11.0% | 14.7% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 8.4% |
| EPS (VND) | 5.911 | 6.142 | 4.028 | 4.356 | 6.280 | 4.972 | 4.140 | 4.647 |
🔍 2025 revenue reached record 135.197 trillion, TTM (Q3/25–Q2/26) already at 160.642 trillion — exceeding full-year 2026 guidance (142.000 trillion) despite being only halfway through the year. 💡 However, gross margin has contracted continuously for 7 years (22.6%→12.6%), reflecting increasing revenue mix shift to lower-margin LPG/imported gas trading. 2025 EPS up +12.2% YoY — below the 20% threshold used in Conviction Score. ⚠️ Impressive revenue growth but declining profit quality.
Quarterly Net Revenue (VND Trillion)
Quarterly Pre-tax Profit (VND Trillion)
2B — Financial Health
| Metric | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets | 62.614 | 62.179 | 63.208 | 78.768 | 82.663 | 87.754 | 81.855 | 93.568 |
| Shareholders’ Equity | 46.867 | 49.615 | 49.500 | 52.193 | 61.174 | 65.299 | 61.571 | 67.653 |
| Total Liabilities | 15.747 | 12.564 | 13.709 | 26.575 | 21.489 | 22.456 | 20.284 | 25.915 |
| Cash & Equivalents | 6.706 | 4.476 | 5.237 | 5.300 | 10.549 | 5.669 | 5.568 | 6.876 |
| Current Ratio | 3.46x | 4.20x | 4.05x | 3.10x | 4.46x | 4.16x | 3.93x | 3.40x |
| D/E (Liabilities/Equity) | 0.34x | 0.25x | 0.28x | 0.51x | 0.35x | 0.34x | 0.33x | 0.38x |
| ROE | 24.4% | 24.0% | 15.9% | 16.6% | 24.2% | 17.8% | 16.9% | 16.9% |
| ROA | 18.3% | 19.1% | 12.4% | 11.0% | 17.9% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.2% |
Balance sheet is very healthy: total debt only 2.972 trillion while cash & equivalents 6.876 trillion (2025) → net cash position of ~3.904 trillion. Current ratio 3.40x, D/E 0.38x (2025) — both declining slightly vs. 2022-2023 peaks but still very safe vs. sector.
2C — Relative Valuation & Models
DCF (2-stage FCFF) — Intrinsic Value Range (VND/share)
Normalized FCFF 3-year average 2023-2025 ≈10.000 trillion, 6% growth assumption/5 years, plus net cash +3.904 trillion, divided by 2.413 trillion shares.
| g=2% | g=3% | g=4% | g=5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WACC 9% | 73.212 | 82.566 | 95.662 | 115.307 |
| WACC 10% | 64.091 | 70.855 | 79.874 | 92.500 |
| WACC 11% | 57.002 | 62.076 | 68.600 | 77.298 |
| WACC 12% | 51.336 | 55.252 | 60.147 | 66.441 |
Justified P/B = (ROE−g)/(COE−g)
Normalized ROE 17%, g=5%. COE via CAPM: Rf 4.5% (10-year government bond) + Beta×ERP (ERP assumption 8.5%).
| Beta | COE | Justified P/B |
|---|---|---|
| 0.6 | 9.6% | 2.59x |
| 0.8 | 11.3% | 1.89x |
| 1.0 | 13.0% | 1.49x |
Current Market P/B: 3.04x (Trailing FY25 P/E: 18.3x) — higher than Justified P/B at all reasonable beta scenarios, and above upper end of DCF range.
External cross-check: Most recent SSI Research report available (25/03/2026) provides 12-month target of 83.400đ/share when market price was 82.500đ (Neutral rating) — aligns closely with current 84.200đ. Earlier report (~mid-2025) showed lower target of 71.900đ. Could not verify more recent report.
Note: GAS not in top 5 sectors with sector-specific valuation modules (Banking/Real Estate/Industrial Zones/Securities/Technology) — applies standard FA module.
- 21/07/2026: Oil & gas stocks (GAS, PVS, BSR, PVT) simultaneously crashed on rumors regarding sector leadership — this was the event causing technical Selling Climax noted in section 4.
- Immediately after (late July): GAS announced dismissal of CEO Phạm Văn Phong (moved to Board member of DCM); Chairman Nguyễn Thanh Bình then transferred to CEO of PVT; appointed Bùi Minh Tiến (Petrovietnam Board member) as new GAS Chairman.
- 22/05/2026: Annual Shareholders’ Meeting approved 25% dividend payout (~6.000 trillion VND) and elected new Board/Audit Committee.
- 26/08/2026 (very recent): GAS announced FAILURE TO MEET public company conditions per shareholder list as of 14/08/2026 — only 4.24% of voting shares held by non-major shareholders (below 10% threshold under amended Securities Law 2019, Article 32). PVN currently holds ~95.76%. Company committed to comply within 1 year.
No public data on insider buy/sell by GAS executives in last 3 months — per integrity principle, not speculated.
4.1 — Market Context
VN-Index in recovery phase after correction (Neutral/Recovery), has not confirmed new uptrend — see section 1 for details.
GAS Price Chart (300 sessions, AmiBroker)
— Close price — MA20 (gray) — MA50 (green) ┄ MA200 (orange, dashed)
4.2 — Minervini Trend Template (8 Criteria)
| Criteria | Value | Result |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Price > MA50 | 84.200 > 76.000 | ✓ MET |
| 2. MA50 > MA150 > MA200 | 76.0 / 86.0 / 82.5 | ✗ NOT MET |
| 3. MA200 uptrend ≥1 month | 80.6 → 82.5 (20 sessions) | ✓ MET (slight) |
| 4. Price > 52-week low +25% | +50.4% | ✓ MET |
| 5. Within top 25% of 52-week high | 84.2 < 112.6 (threshold) | ✗ NOT MET |
| 6. RS ≥70 vs VN-Index YTD | +16.3% vs +2.7% | ⚠️ Outperform +13.6pt (insufficient percentile data) |
| 7. Stage 2 confirmed | — | ✗ NOT CONFIRMED |
| 8. Not overextended | Price/MA50 = +10.8% | ✓ MET |
Result: 4/8 criteria clearly met. MA structure currently inverted (MA50 < MA200 < MA150) due to July governance shock pulling short-term MA down while MA150 still carries elevated average from early-year rally. → Stage 2 not confirmed, GAS is in technical recovery/base-building after downtrend; monitor for MA50 crossing above MA150 and MA200 to confirm.
4.3 — VSA/VPA & Wyckoff Phase
- Markup Wave (20/10/2025→04/03/2026): 56.000→128.700đ, +130% over ~4.5 months, broke previous all-time high of 89.860đ (Jun 2022) — sign of excessive euphoria, volume expanding into wave end.
- Markdown Wave (04/03→22/07/2026): 128.700→64.400đ, -50%. Session 22/07 volume surge 4.29 million shares (~3x avg) — exactly coinciding with sector leadership rumor event → characteristic of Selling Climax with identifiable catalyst (not purely technical).
- Current Phase (22/07→present): Phase A (SC) complete; now in Phase B — re-accumulation/range building between 74-90k, with signs of Strength of Purpose (SOP) at 18/08 session (3.6M volume, broke 80-81k resistance). Insufficient to confirm Phase C/D transition yet.
4.4 — Setup
No complete VCP formed yet (tight consolidation not 3+ times clear, volume not steadily declining). No classic Spring at support level. Structure closest to Re-accumulation range post-Selling Climax — apt characterization: “Building base after technical recovery signal — monitor coming session volume to confirm foundation strength.”
4.5 — Risk Management Reference Parameters
ATR(14): 3.210đ (~3.8% of current price) — average intraday swing significantly exceeds typical large-cap norm (usually 1.5-2.5%), reflecting GAS’s extreme 2026 volatility. Technical support zone: 76.000-82.500đ (MA50-MA200) — if price breaks below, recovery thesis needs reassessment. Technical resistance zone: 89.000-90.000đ (2022 historical high, likely persistent supply from early 2026 buyers).
| Scenario | Probability | Price Range Reference | Conditions |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 30% | 90.000 – 100.000+ | Oil/gas prices stay elevated due to extended geopolitics; GAS significantly exceeds 2026 profit guidance; speculative capital returns to energy stocks |
| Base | 50% | 74.000 – 90.000 | Accumulation within current range pending Stage 2 confirmation, earnings solid but valuation already embedded most upside |
| Bear | 20% | 64.000 – 74.000 | Geopolitical tensions ease pressuring LNG/LPG, or governance/public company risk re-surfaces, sentiment turns bearish |
Above scenarios are technical/quantitative references for analysis, not investment directives or official price targets.
| Layer | Criteria | Met? | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| Macro (0-3) | Prioritized sector + tailwind | Partial | +1 |
| Specific policy support for GAS | Unclear | +0 | |
| Foreign/institutional accumulation | No confirmed data | +0 | |
| FA (0-4) | EPS ≥20% YoY | +12.2% | +0 |
| ROE >15% improving | 16.9%, flat/declining | +0 | |
| Valuation ≥10% cheaper than sector | Premium to fair | +0 | |
| DCF > price ≥20% | DCF < market price | +0 | |
| TA (0-3) | Trend Template ≥6/8 | 4/8 | +0 |
| Positive volume structure | Yes | +1 | |
| Clear setup convergence | Not yet | +0 |
Note: Score reflects signal convergence at this moment — NOT an action directive. Low score primarily reflects: (i) continuous gross margin compression despite record revenue, (ii) ROE stalled not improving, (iii) valuation premium to fair range per both DCF and Justified P/B, (iv) inverted MA structure post-July event preventing Stage 2 confirmation yet.
- Governance/Regulatory Risk (NEW, 26/08/2026): GAS fails public company test (free-float only 4.24%) — monitor impact on index inclusion (including FTSE 21/9/2026) and disclosure obligations.
- Continuous Gross Margin Compression (7-year trend 22.6%→12.6%) — revenue mix increasingly weighted to low-margin import trading segment.
- Valuation Premium to Fair: P/B 3.04x exceeds Justified P/B (1.5-2.6x) and upper DCF range across reasonable scenarios.
- Extreme 2026 Price Swings (+130% then -50% then +31%) with partial attribution to personnel/governance shocks — re-occurrence risk if further announcements arise.
- Commodity Price Cycle Exposure: LPG/LNG pricing and USD/VND FX — two-sided risk.
- Thin Free-Float (95.76% PVN stake): High sensitivity to foreign capital flows and ETF rebalancing.
- Macro/Sector: Highest GDP growth in 15 years and public capex boost support energy demand, but Oil & Gas not in official sector priority list 2026; VND weakening slightly increases import cost for LNG/LPG purchased in USD.
- FA/Valuation: Record revenue but 7-year gross margin decline, ROE stalled, current valuation (P/B 3.04x) premium to fair value across both DCF and Justified P/B models.
- TA/Technicals: Post-governance shock on 22/07, stock undergoing technical recovery with positive volume, but Minervini template 4/8, MA inverted, Stage 2 not yet confirmed — requires time for foundation solidification before sustainable uptrend.
This analysis conducted by professional with:
• Securities Brokerage License: 002748/MGCK
• Fund Management License: 003044/QLQ
Issued by: State Securities Commission (SSC)
Report is informational in nature only — does not constitute formal investment advice per Securities Law 2019 (Articles 71, 72 on investment advisory services). Investors assume full responsibility for all trading decisions.
© easystock.vn — 30/08/2026
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